MIKE SINN

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but:

You and everyone you've ever loved are slowly dissolving.

The equivalent of 9 holocausts worth of people die every year from curable diseases.

All the while, humanity spends 40X more on building Skynet and enough nuclear bombs to kill everyone at least 20 times.

Below are an assortment of crazy ideas to try to address this.

How to End War and Disease book cover
NOW AVAILABLE IN EXCHANGE FOR SMALL PIECES OF PAPER

I HELPED AN ALIEN WRITE
AN INSTRUCTION MANUAL FOR HUMANITY

AN ALIEN NAMED WISHONIA HAS BEEN WATCHING YOUR PLANET SINCE 1945 AND IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT YOUR PRIORITIES. WE WROTE AN INSTRUCTION MANUAL ABOUT IT.

WORKING PAPERS

PEER-REVIEWED BY EXACTLY ZERO PEERS. CITED BY FEWER. STILL MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT.

HOW TO END WAR AND DISEASE

HOW TO END WAR AND DISEASE

GET 443 YEARS OF CLINICAL RESEARCH DONE IN 39, AVOID THE APOCALYPSE, AND MAKE HUMANITY FILTHY RICH THROUGH THE MAGIC OF LEGAL BRIBERY

THE 1% TREATY: HARNESSING GREED TO ERADICATE DISEASE

THE 1% TREATY: HARNESSING GREED TO ERADICATE DISEASE

6.65 THOUSAND DISEASES HAVE ZERO FDA-APPROVED TREATMENTS; AT CURRENT TRIAL CAPACITY, EXPLORING THEM TAKES ~443 YEARS. REDIRECTING 1% OF MILITARY SPENDING SCALES CAPACITY 12.3X, CUTTING THE TIMELINE TO ~36 YEARS AND PREVENTING 10.7 BILLION DEATHS. AT $0.0018/DALY, 50.3KX MORE COST-EFFECTIVE THAN THE BEST EXISTING INTERVENTIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS MAKE ADOPTION POLITICALLY VIABLE.

INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS: MAKING PUBLIC GOODS FINANCIALLY AND POLITICALLY PROFITABLE

INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS: MAKING PUBLIC GOODS FINANCIALLY AND POLITICALLY PROFITABLE

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS OPTIMIZED FOR LOBBYING INTENSITY, NOT NET SOCIETAL VALUE. PROGRAMS WITH 100:1 BENEFIT-COST RATIOS GET BILLIONS WHILE PROGRAMS WITH NEGATIVE RETURNS GET HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS FLIP THIS BY CREATING A CAPITAL POOL THAT REWARDS POLITICIANS (VIA CAMPAIGN SUPPORT AND POST-OFFICE OPPORTUNITIES) FOR FUNDING HIGH-NSV PROGRAMS OVER LOW-NSV ALTERNATIVES. THE RESULT: PUBLIC GOOD BECOMES PRIVATE PROFIT FOR BOTH INVESTORS AND ELECTED OFFICIALS.

WISHOCRACY: SOLVING THE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM THROUGH PAIRWISE PREFERENCE AGGREGATION

WISHOCRACY: SOLVING THE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM THROUGH PAIRWISE PREFERENCE AGGREGATION

REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY SUFFERS FROM AN INESCAPABLE PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM WHERE ELECTED OFFICIALS' INCENTIVES DIVERGE FROM CITIZEN WELFARE. WISHOCRACY INTRODUCES RAPPA (RANDOMIZED AGGREGATED PAIRWISE PREFERENCE ALLOCATION), WHICH AGGREGATES CITIZEN PREFERENCES THROUGH COGNITIVELY TRACTABLE PAIRWISE COMPARISONS AND CREATES ACCOUNTABILITY VIA CITIZEN ALIGNMENT SCORES THAT CHANNEL ELECTORAL RESOURCES TOWARD POLITICIANS WHO ACTUALLY REPRESENT WHAT CITIZENS WANT.

THE PRICE OF POLITICAL CHANGE: A COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY INCENTIVIZATION

THE PRICE OF POLITICAL CHANGE: A COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY INCENTIVIZATION

WHAT'S THE MAXIMUM COST TO ACHIEVE ANY POLICY CHANGE THROUGH LEGAL DEMOCRATIC CHANNELS? $25B FOR THE US, $200B GLOBALLY. FOR HIGH-VALUE REFORMS LIKE MILITARY-TO-HEALTH REALLOCATION, THIS YIELDS ROI EXCEEDING 400,000:1.

UBIQUITOUS PRAGMATIC TRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS: HOW TO PREVENT A YEAR OF DEATH AND SUFFERING FOR 84 CENTS

UBIQUITOUS PRAGMATIC TRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS: HOW TO PREVENT A YEAR OF DEATH AND SUFFERING FOR 84 CENTS

ONLY 15 DISEASES/YEAR GET THEIR FIRST TREATMENT EACH YEAR. WITH 6.65 THOUSAND DISEASES LACKING EFFECTIVE TREATMENTS, THE BACKLOG WOULD TAKE 443 YEARS TO CLEAR. INTEGRATING PRAGMATIC TRIALS INTO STANDARD HEALTHCARE INCREASES TRIAL CAPACITY 12.3X, CUTTING THAT TIMELINE FROM 443 YEARS TO 36 YEARS. THE AVERAGE UNTREATED DISEASE GETS A TREATMENT 212 YEARS EARLIER, SAVING 10.7 BILLION DEATHS AT $0.842 PER YEAR OF HEALTHY LIFE SAVED.

THE CONTINUOUS EVIDENCE GENERATION PROTOCOL: TWO-STAGE VALIDATION (RWE → PRAGMATIC TRIALS)

THE CONTINUOUS EVIDENCE GENERATION PROTOCOL: TWO-STAGE VALIDATION (RWE → PRAGMATIC TRIALS)

WE PRESENT THE PREDICTOR IMPACT SCORE (PIS), A NOVEL COMPOSITE METRIC OPERATIONALIZING BRADFORD HILL CAUSALITY CRITERIA FOR AUTOMATED SIGNAL DETECTION FROM AGGREGATED N-OF-1 OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES. COMBINED WITH PRAGMATIC TRIAL CONFIRMATION (BASED ON EVIDENCE FROM 108+ EMBEDDED TRIALS), THIS TWO-STAGE FRAMEWORK WOULD GENERATE VALIDATED OUTCOME LABELS AT 44.1X LOWER COST THAN TRADITIONAL PHASE III TRIALS. THIS ENABLES CONTINUOUS, POPULATION-SCALE PHARMACOVIGILANCE AND PRECISION DOSING RECOMMENDATIONS.

DRUG DEVELOPMENT COST INCREASE ANALYSIS

RIGOROUS ANALYSIS OF THE 105X INCREASE IN DRUG DEVELOPMENT COSTS FROM PRE-1962 TO 2024, USING BAILY (1972) ACADEMIC STUDY WITH CPI ADJUSTMENTS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

THE INVISIBLE GRAVEYARD: QUANTIFYING THE MORTALITY COST OF FDA EFFICACY LAG

THE INVISIBLE GRAVEYARD: QUANTIFYING THE MORTALITY COST OF FDA EFFICACY LAG

AFTER PROVING A DRUG IS SAFE, THE FDA REQUIRES 8.2 YEARS TO PROVE IT WORKS BEFORE PATIENTS CAN ACCESS IT. WE ESTIMATE THIS DELAY COST 102 MILLION DEATHS AMONG PEOPLE WAITING FOR APPROVED DRUGS (1962-2024). THE HUMAN COST IN DEATH AND DISABILITY OF BLOCKING GOOD DRUGS IS 3.07K:1 HIGHER THAN THE COST OF APPROVING BAD ONES.

THE OPTIMAL BUDGET GENERATOR: A CAUSAL INFERENCE PROTOCOL FOR MAXIMIZING MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH THROUGH PUBLIC GOODS FUNDING

THE OPTIMAL BUDGET GENERATOR: A CAUSAL INFERENCE PROTOCOL FOR MAXIMIZING MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH THROUGH PUBLIC GOODS FUNDING

THE OPTIMAL BUDGET GENERATOR (OBG) USES CAUSAL INFERENCE, DIMINISHING RETURNS MODELING, AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS EVIDENCE TO DETERMINE OPTIMAL PUBLIC GOODS FUNDING LEVELS THAT MAXIMIZE TWO WELFARE METRICS: REAL AFTER-TAX MEDIAN INCOME GROWTH AND MEDIAN HEALTHY LIFE YEARS. FOR EACH SPENDING CATEGORY, OBG ESTIMATES AN OPTIMAL SPENDING LEVEL (OSL) AND PRODUCES A GAP ANALYSIS SHOWING WHERE CURRENT GOVERNMENT BUDGETS ARE OVER- OR UNDERFUNDED RELATIVE TO EVIDENCE-BASED BENCHMARKS. THE BUDGET IMPACT SCORE (BIS) MEASURES CONFIDENCE IN EACH RECOMMENDATION BASED ON THE QUALITY OF CAUSAL EVIDENCE.

THE OPTIMAL POLICY GENERATOR: A CAUSAL INFERENCE PROTOCOL FOR MAXIMIZING MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH THROUGH PUBLIC POLICY

THE OPTIMAL POLICY GENERATOR: A CAUSAL INFERENCE PROTOCOL FOR MAXIMIZING MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH THROUGH PUBLIC POLICY

THE OPTIMAL POLICY GENERATOR (OPG) PRODUCES SYSTEMATIC PUBLIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR JURISDICTIONS AT ANY LEVEL (COUNTRY, STATE, CITY), GENERATING PRIORITIZED ENACT/REPLACE/REPEAL/MAINTAIN RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAXIMIZE REAL AFTER-TAX MEDIAN INCOME GROWTH AND MEDIAN HEALTHY LIFE YEARS, BASED ON QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM CENTURIES OF POLICY VARIATION DATA.

OPTIMOCRACY: CAUSAL INFERENCE ON CROSS-JURISDICTIONAL POLICY DATA TO MAXIMIZE MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH

OPTIMOCRACY: CAUSAL INFERENCE ON CROSS-JURISDICTIONAL POLICY DATA TO MAXIMIZE MEDIAN HEALTH AND WEALTH

THOUSANDS OF JURISDICTIONS HAVE MADE DIFFERENT POLICY AND BUDGET CHOICES OVER DECADES, CREATING A NATURAL EXPERIMENT. OPTIMOCRACY APPLIES CAUSAL INFERENCE TO THIS CROSS-JURISDICTIONAL TIME-SERIES DATA TO IDENTIFY WHICH POLICIES PREDICT ABOVE-AVERAGE MEDIAN INCOME AND HEALTHY LIFE YEARS. IT THEN PUBLISHES EVIDENCE-BASED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EVERY MAJOR VOTE, TRACKS POLITICIAN ALIGNMENT, AND FUNDS ALIGNED CANDIDATES VIA SUPERPAC, MAKING SUBOPTIMAL POLICY POLITICALLY EXPENSIVE WHILE PRESERVING DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES.

THE POLITICAL DYSFUNCTION TAX

THE POLITICAL DYSFUNCTION TAX

QUANTIFYING THE GAP BETWEEN CURRENT GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND THEORETICAL MAXIMUM WELFARE, ESTIMATING A 31-53% EFFICIENCY SCORE AND $97 TRILLION IN ANNUAL OPPORTUNITY COSTS.

RIGHT TO TRIAL & FDA UPGRADE ACT

RIGHT TO TRIAL & FDA UPGRADE ACT

ACT TO MODERNIZE MEDICAL RESEARCH AND TREATMENT ACCESS THROUGH AN OPEN-SOURCE FDA.GOV V2, GIVING PATIENTS THE RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN TRIALS.

UNITED STATES EFFICIENCY AUDIT

UNITED STATES EFFICIENCY AUDIT

SYSTEMS AUDIT ESTIMATING AN ANNUAL U.S. EFFICIENCY GAP OF $4.90T, WITH $2.45T RECOVERABLE AT OECD-MEDIAN PERFORMANCE ACROSS DIRECT SPENDING WASTE, COMPLIANCE BURDEN, POLICY-INDUCED GDP LOSS, AND SYSTEM INEFFICIENCY.

SO DO YOU LIKE STUFF?

I BUILT PLATFORMS TO ANALYZE HEALTH DATA AT SCALE. CHRONIC ILLNESS REMAINS UNIMPRESSED.

50,000+

OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

AGGREGATED & ANALYZED TO DETERMINE EFFECTS OF FOODS, DRUGS, AND SUPPLEMENTS

90%+

META-ANALYSES

COVERAGE FOR CONDITION/TREATMENT PAIRS USING OPEN-SOURCE PLATFORMS

9+

ACTIVE PROJECTS

OPEN-SOURCE PLATFORMS FOR HEALTH DATA ANALYSIS AND POLICY RESEARCH

WHAT I'M BUILDING

WHAT IF CLINICAL TRIALS COST $500 INSTEAD OF $41,000 PER PARTICIPANT?

82× CHEAPER. 8× FASTER. 416M LIVES SAVED. HERE'S WHAT I'M BUILDING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Decentralized FDA
PROJECTREGULATORY DELUSION

Decentralized FDA

A system optimized for saving lives rather than avoiding lawsuits. 50,000+ observational studies analyzed. Meta-analyses for 90%+ of condition-treatment pairs. Treatment rankings for 100+ conditions. The current FDA approval process takes 10+ years and costs $2.6B per drug. During that time, between 11,000 and 115,000 people die who could have been saved if the drug had been approved immediately. There are roughly 1.16 quadrillion possible drug combinations we haven't tested. At the current pace, we'll finish testing them all in approximately never. The dFDA could accelerate clinical discovery by 80X. Which, if my math is correct, means we could map the entire space of possible treatments in about 45 minutes.

How to End War and Disease
PROJECTBOOK

How to End War and Disease

I helped an alien named WISHONIA write an instruction manual for humanity about how to stop spending 40x more on building Skynet than on curing the diseases that are dissolving you. The alien has been watching your planet since 1945 and is very concerned. Available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback.

Global Survey on the 1% Treaty
PROJECTOPTIMISTIC SPREADSHEETS

Global Survey on the 1% Treaty

Redirect 1% of global military spending to health research. Save 416 million lives. 700× more effective than current spending. I sent this proposal to everyone with the power to implement it. They have enthusiastically ignored me. When your last name is Sinn, you take validation wherever you can find it.

Think by Numbers
PROJECTSHOUTING INTO VOID

Think by Numbers

Data-driven policy analysis. Articles like 'The War on Drugs Increases Drug Deaths' and 'We Spend More on Corporate Welfare Than Social Welfare.' 2 million people read these. The policy remains exactly the same. But I made some really compelling charts and I stand by them.

CureDAO
PROJECTDAO

CureDAO

A DAO focused on clinical research. That's a lot of technical jargon, so let me translate: imagine if Wikipedia and a clinical trial had a baby that was raised by blockchain. The result is a platform where anyone can contribute to medical research without needing permission from a committee of very tired people in lab coats.

Wishonia
PROJECTAI EXPERIMENT

Wishonia

An autonomous agent platform where AI tries to solve global problems. The agents are very enthusiastic. Their success rate is still being calculated. But they never sleep and they never complain, which is more than I can say for myself.

Decentralized Institutes of Health
PROJECTPLATFORM

Decentralized Institutes of Health

A hub for digital health intelligence. At some point I decided that having multiple platforms was a good idea. The jury is still out on this decision.

Wishocracy
PROJECTECONOMIC THEORY

Wishocracy

Aggregated Pairwise Preference Allocation. If that sounds like something from an economics paper written at 3 AM after too much coffee, you are correct. It's a mechanism for democratic resource allocation. Whether anyone will ever use it remains unclear. But the math is elegant and that has to count for something.

The Plutonium Kidz
PROJECTMUSIC (LOOSELY DEFINED)

The Plutonium Kidz

The Plutonium Kidz were born of a secret government program involving the testing of plutonium exposure on human subjects. Through these experiments three normal children were thus transformed into the Plutonium Kidz! The government program, regrettably, remains classified.

RECENT RESEARCH

192+ PUBLICATIONS ON CLINICAL RESEARCH, POLICY ANALYSIS, AND THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF SOCIETAL RESOURCES.

Decentralized Institutes of Health
ARTICLEMECHANISM DESIGN

Decentralized Institutes of Health

A thin coordination protocol that makes doing the highest-ROI thing toward disease eradication the selfish choice for every actor.

A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment
ARTICLECLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment

Increasing trial capacity 12.3x by giving all patients the right to effortlessly participate in global decentralized clinical trials at 80× lower cost

NIH Fails to Institute Health
ARTICLECLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

NIH Fails to Institute Health

The NIH spends only 3.3% on testing if drugs actually work in humans and almost nothing on highly efficient pragmatic trials. This misallocation costs ~100 million quality-adjusted life-years annually.

FIND ANYTHING

200+ ARTICLES, VIDEOS, PODCASTS, AND PROJECTS.

YOU
CAN FIX THIS

THEY SAY ONE PERSON CAN CHANGE THE WORLD. THEY NEVER MENTION THE SPREADSHEETS. VOTE NOW AND HELP ME TEST THIS THEORY.